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under climate and human pressure
Modeling of land use
Overview
An agent-based model (ABM) is a representation of a complex social-ecological system in which agents act and interact with each other and with their environment. The results of these interactions may lead to emergent properties at the landscape level so that it becomes possible to predict land-use.
Objectives
The main goal of this activity is to define how much ecosystem services are consumed by the local citizens. The ABM has to represent the demand side of those services in light of the other activities and particularly of the supply side.
Approach
The modeling of ecosystem services consumption takes place at the village level. Such a perspective allows the confrontation of point of views and to highlight and discuss the stakeholders’ understanding of interdependencies, synergies and trade-offs between ES. The village chosen as study site is selected according to the socio-economic analysis and discussions with all project partners and local collaborators. More generally, the study area is representative enough of the ongoing processes of change that characterize the larger lake Tumba landscape.
The study of ecosystem services is a relatively novel scientific field which still contains a very high level of uncertainties both from a scientific and societal point of views. In such case, a post-normal posture can be required which implies a move away from the expert posture that is usually applied in such projects. An expert posture is valid and best used when uncertainties are rather low. In a post-normal posture, there should be a dialogue between scientists, citizens and decision makers. Such a post-normal posture is taken in the context of the ABM developed in BIOSERF. We implement an ABM that broadly follows the principle of companion modeling (commod) initiated by the CIRAD. A commod approach requires that all ideas at the basis of modeling can be challenged, and that there should be no implicit hypothesis from the scientist at the start of the study. The scientists should consider the impact of the research on the study area from the start of their research. Particular attention should also be given to validation, including social validation.
The DVM models the supply side of ES while the ABM models the demand side of those ES. The link of the ABM with the DVM is explicit in that the ABM can be calibrated using results of the DVM which predictions on the other side can move from potential to more actual values by taking into account man effect on land-use.